Originally Posted by Mythos

I will give you that there was an entire round where no actual evidence relating to the crime itself is present.

In my perspective all of the evidence-- anything on the first few posts of this thread or the first few posts on the original thread-- is useful in rebuilding the story and solving the mystery but the extra clue I gave was there was a round where the evidence given was not put there by the perp and/or perps.

[insert evil laughter here]

You just confuse me more!



I'll have to give this some good thinking tomorrow

---------- Post added 04-03-2014 at 10:23 PM ----------

The evil laughter Oh, Mythos We don't talk often enough

We definitely don't, Fire!

You may let the people know how I was able to solve the mystery of the tarts. And then we can gather up all the culprits and play a huge round of musical chairs as part of their sentence.

But Long... they might LIKE that!

It's TOO LATE TO BE COHERENT! I hope I can wake up in time tomorrow to get something in.

-falls over, dizzy-

Thanks for the reminder! Roxxxy is on the case >.>

Can I make a suggestion for the raffle prizes next time?

Instead of making them in numerical order based of the first letter of usernames, why not assign them randomly? Use a random number generator after counting the amount of tickets to be given out?

Not to complain or whine, but I noticed that all the raffle winners were mostly on the first half of the list.

Using a random number generator of 1-125, it would seem more likely to land on a number in the middle rather than land on the first or last number, giving people with usernames that start with the first and the last few letters of alphabet a slimmer chance of being winners.

No body with a username that starts with a letter after P was a winner.

Not trying to complain.. Just trying to offer a suggestion to give better odds for everyone, not just the middle-ish parts of the alphabet.

Does that make sense at all?

Whew! Got my submission in. And... it's right, and you're all wrong!

Originally Posted by Velvet

Can I make a suggestion for the raffle prizes next time?

Instead of making them in numerical order based of the first letter of usernames, why not assign them randomly? Use a random number generator after counting the amount of tickets to be given out?

Not to complain or whine, but I noticed that all the raffle winners were mostly on the first half of the list.

Using a random number generator of 1-125, it would seem more likely to land on a number in the middle rather than land on the first or last number, giving people with usernames that start with the first and the last few letters of alphabet a slimmer chance of being winners.

No body with a username that starts with a letter after P was a winner.

Not trying to complain.. Just trying to offer a suggestion to give better odds for everyone, not just the middle-ish parts of the alphabet.

Does that make sense at all?

To the brain it makes sense... but sadly statistics don't make brain-sense. Seriously, they've done studies and the human brain doesn't understand statistics. That's why Las Vegas exists.

I can say that, having done a raffle where the tickets were randomly distributed, it's a bit of a nuisance, and it doesn't actually affect the outcome at all. A random number generator is just as likely to land on 1 as it is to land on 48, so shuffling the tickets doesn't really make a difference. It feels like it does, but it doesn't.

Yeah, that's why the Chance game during events is so evil!

Chance you can at least use the statistics some... If your number is 5 or less, it's probably higher, and if your number is 9 or more it's probably lower... but you can still lose guessing higher on a 2.

But if it's completely random, the only thing you can predict is that if the number is 5, then the number being guessed at won't be 5.

But you know that of the numbers that aren't 5, 8 are higher while 4 are lower. You can't guarantee that it will be higher, but there's a 66% chance that it is higher.

I think it just means that 66% of the numbers left are higher. Right? Random is still random - all numbers left have an equal chance of being picked.

Yes, all numbers left have an equal chance of being picked... but there's twice as much chance that the number picked will be higher in that scenario. If you have 8 blue chips and 4 red chips in a bucket, you're more likely to draw out a blue one.

You broke my brain
And I bet it was YOU who stole the tarts!

Me? *wipes crumbs off her dress* Would I do that?

All roads lead to maths...!

I had originally intended to assign the tickets in the order of which they were obtained-- and I do plan on using that system the next time I run anything raffle-y-- but how I organized my records while the event was live did not easily allow for that.

Wyrm! How could you?!

:P Wyrm should writ my paper for me

Wyrm hasn't even finished writing out her theory!

Better get to it! Personally, I think it was Seri

Ugh. I just got my entry in.
I hope Mythos doesn't mind a long, drawn out tale of intrigue.

Or madness. I think at this point at NIGHT we're dipping into both columns.

Yes, I see that time stamp, but I'm not seeing a pillow.

---------- Post added 04-05-2014 at 06:38 AM ----------

Wait, what?
Raffle, what?

I thought we just sent in the theory after participating during the event period. @_@;

When people found evidence instead of items they were given a raffle slot. Those have already been handed out... the last part of this game comes to a close this coming week when all is revealed.

Didja read the submission? Did I do it correctly? @_@;